CLAIM: An average 2 000 people die every year on the country’s roads
SOURCE: The NewsDay
VERDICT: True, when using Zimbabwe’s own data and definition.
Every time a person between the ages of 5 – 29 gets on the road, they face a high risk of dying. The risk increases if they are a pedestrian. It increases even further if they are in a low and middle income country.
According to the World Health Organisation, approximately 1.2 million people die each year as a result of road traffic crashes. Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for children and young adults aged 5–29 years. 92% of the world’s fatalities on the roads occur in low- and middle-income countries, even though these countries have around 60% of the world’s vehicles. More than half of all road traffic deaths are among vulnerable road users, including pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists.
The NewsDay of January 13, claimed that ‘an average 2 000 people die every year on the country’s roads’. The statistic is attributed to the Traffic Safety Council of Zimbabwe.
What is a road traffic fatality?
Different countries define a road traffic fatality in various ways. Zimbabwe uses the 24 hour indicator. On the other hand, the World Health Organisation defines a road traffic fatality as ‘any person killed immediately or dying within 30 days as a result of a road traffic injury accident’. However, only 80 countries, globally, use the 30-day definition with others using on scene, 24 hours, 7 days or within a year as indicators.
Zimbabwean statistics
Road traffic accidents are recorded by the Zimbabwe Republic Police. The statistics are then published by Zimbabwe Statistics (ZimStat).
According to ZimStat, 2079 people died from road traffic accidents in 2022. In the year between October 2022 and September 2023, 2120 people died.
These were:
528 in Quarter 4 in 2022
474 in Quarter 1 in 2023
514 in Quarter 2 in 2023
604 in Quarter 3 in 2023
However, because Zimbabwe only records fatalities that happen within 24 hours of the accident, the World Health Organisation re-adjusts the statistic to align it with the 30-day definition. The re-adjusted data is modelled on WHO’s assessment and adjustment of data from countries with an unreliable civil registration system.
Official statistics in the country come from national police. Statistics provided by TSCZ confirm that road crash deaths rate rose by 34.45% between 2011 to 2019, from 1,291 deaths in 2011 and rising to 2,000 in 2019.
The 2020 WHO re-adjusted figures for Zimbabwe are 6 037 fatalities.
The extent of underreporting by countries is influenced by:
- The sector that records the information
- The proportion of crashes which involves vulnerable road users which are mostly underreported
- Poor or absent links between police and health service data which means deaths after hospital admission often go unreported.
The WHO says there is general underreporting by police and transport sector compared to health sector data.
WHO best practice criteria for legislation on the five key risk factors
Speeding – National law exists, urban limits are set at 50 km/h or lower, and local authorities can further modify this limit
Drink driving – National law exists, alcohol levels are defined by Blood Alcohol Content (BAC), alcohol limits per general driving population are ≤0.05 g/dl and for inexperienced drivers ≤0.02 g/dl
Motorcycle helmet use – National law exists and it covers all riders, on all road types, and all engine types, and the helmet must be fastened and meet a standard
Seat-belt use – National law exists and it applies to all seating positions in vehicles
Child restraint system use – National law exists, children up to the age of 10 years, or 135 cm in height, must use a child restraint system meeting a standard in addition to the prohibition of children of a particular age/height being prohibited from sitting in the front seats
Zimbabwe meets only 1 of these 5 criteria. Zimbabwe did not achieve the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.6 of the United Nations nor that of the Decade for Road Safety to reduce road crash deaths and serious injury by 50% by 2020.
Conclusion
The claim that ‘an average 2 000 people die every year on the country’s roads’ has been rated true, but only when using the country’s own data and definitions.
A major concern is that the official statistics relate only to crash scene deaths count and rarely take into account victims who die on the way and in hospital or after discharge, for which World Health Organization estimations aim to also account. The WHO estimation indicates that crash fatalities are close to three times the rate reported by the country. While Zimbabwe has 2023 figures, WHO figures for the period after 2020 are not yet available.
