CLAIM: Growth in the mining sector output from US$3-4 billion six years ago to an annual output of US$14 billion.
SOURCE: Patrick Chinamasa, ZANU PF secretary for Legal Affairs
VERDICT: False
ZANU-PF’s legal affairs secretary, Patrick Chinamasa, recently shared a list of his party’s ‘achievements that are laying a firm foundation for Zimbabwe’s future prosperity’. He listed a total of 34.
The listed activities included the ‘completion of the world-class Harare to Beitbridge Highway’; ‘completion of Hwange Units 7 and 8, now supplying power to the national grid’; and ‘numerous rural roads under construction or rehabilitation’.
FactCheckZW, will, in the next week, look at some of the claims. Today’s claim is ‘Growth in the mining sector output from US$3-4 billion six years ago to an annual output of US$14 billion’.
Six years ago was 2018. This was when President Emmerson Mnangagwa began his presidential term. In 2017, the mining sector ‘s annual revenue was US$2.7 billion.
Zimbabwe set the USD12 billion in mineral production by the year 2023 in a strategy, launched by President Emmerson Mnangagwa on 14 October 2019.
In 2022, Zimbabwe’s earnings from minerals were US$5,627 billion, according to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in its Monetary Policy Statement in February 2023. This was up from US$5 billion in 2021.
In an article in the Sunday Mail, Zimbabwe’s Mining minister was quoted saying, ‘In 2022, the mining industry attained US$5,4 billion in exports against a targeted projection of US$8 billion. In comparison with the base year, 2017, wherein the mining sector’s annual revenue amounted to US$2,7 billion, the mining sector has demonstrated a 100 percent increase in terms of mineral exports.’
The Chamber of Mines reported the mining industry generated US$5,6 billion in 2022 compared to US$5,1 billion in 2021, and it projected 10.4 percent sector growth in 2023 to surpass US$6 billion.
The Chamber of Mines is yet to publicise its 2023 Annual report.
However, in late 2023 several media houses published stories that Zimbabwe had surpassed its US$12 billion target, here and here.
The Zimbabwe Independent, reported that Pfungwa Kunaka, the permanent secretary in the ministry said at the time, ‘We await the final data at the close of the year. The ministry is confident that the target of US$12 billion has been attained and even surpassed.’
However, evidence suggests that the mineral sector performed badly in 2023 in comparison to 2022, ‘Deliveries to official gold buyer Fidelity ended the year at 30.1 tonnes, down from 35.6 tonnes in 2022. The 2022 haul was a record, driven by new mining projects at larger producers and better payments to small-scale miners, who account for the bulk of Zimbabwe’s gold deliveries. But sales slowed in 2023. Gold output has plateaued for large producers. They delivered 11.4 tonnes, showing little growth from the 11.2 tonnes they delivered in 2023, the same amount of gold they delivered in 2021’.
It turns out that the government added another matrix for the 2023 figures to ensure that the target is met. Instead of just exports, the government added what it called industry investments between 2018 and 2023 and local consumption to the export earnings to get to the US$12 billion. Even with the new matrix, however, there is no evidence that Zimbabwe has now reached an annual output of US$14 billion in the mining sector as claimed by Chinamasa.
Conclusion
The claim that ‘Growth in the mining sector output from US$3-4 billion six years ago to an annual output of US$14 billion’ is false. When the initial target of US$12 billion in the mining sector was set out in 2019, it was for export earnings.
Under the US$12 billion mining roadmap, gold was expected to contribute US$4 billion, platinum US$3 billion while chrome, iron, steel diamonds and coal contribution was set at US$1 billion. Lithium was expected to contribute US$500 million while other minerals were targeted at US$1,5 billion. This has not been achieved. Instead, the government changed this target to include US$5,2 billion investment between 2018 and 2023; US$5,4 billion export earnings plus local consumption. So, no, the mining sector annual output has not reached $14 billion as claimed.
This Fact check was produced with the support of FullFact AI. The AI identifies potential claims for fact checking.
