CLAIM: There are 908,913 Zimbabweans living in the diaspora.
VERDICT: Inconclusive. The numbers can not be substantiated though the evidence suggests undercounting.
Border between Zimbabwe and South Africa. Source: The Guardian
The figures from the Zimbabwe Population Census of 2022 on diaspora numbers, have left many people skeptical and dismissive of the census process, after putting the number of Zimbabweans living in the diaspora at under a million, here and here.
This comes on the backdrop of a South African citizenry complaint on the ‘large’ number of Zimbabweans living in that country. The figures for immigrants in South Africa has ranged from anything between 1 – 1.5 million here and 15 million here.
Africa Check has previously fact checked the number of Zimbabweans – legal and illegal – here, and come up with varying figures, making verification difficult.
Zimbabwe Statistics is the organ mandated to collect national statistics. While it would be difficult for fact checkers to give alternative figures, it is possible to compare with how other countries report statistics of Zimbabweans living in their countries.
Verification
ZimStat not only provided the number of Zimbabweans living in the diaspora but also gave a breakdown by country.
To verify these figures, FactCheckZW looked at how these compare to those being reported by the host countries.
The country reported to have the highest number of Zimbabweans is South Africa with 773,246.
According to Statistics South Africa, there were 672,308 Zimbabweans living in South Africa at the time of the 2011 census. The number is likely higher now.
The United Kingdom, according to ZimStat, is home to 23,166 Zimbabweans.
This is in stark contrast to the UK census that put the numbers at 122,000 in 2020/21 here.
In contrast to Zimbabwe’s 2022 figures of only 6,473 Zimbabweans there, Australia recorded 34,787 Zimbabwe born people in its 2016 census, an increase of 15 per cent from 2011 figures.
Among the total Zimbabwe-born in Australia at the 2016 Census, 27.5 per cent arrived between 2007 and 2011 and 14.6 per cent arrived between 2012 and 2016.
FactCheckZW also looked at Canada figures. According to the Canada 2016 Census there were 16,225 Canadian citizens who claimed Zimbabwean ancestry and 15,000 Zimbabwean citizens residing in the country at the moment of the census.
This is in contrast to 3,420 recorded in the ZimStat figures.
Addressing a press conference presenting the results, ZimStat Director General Dr Taguma Mahode said the highest numbers of Zimbabweans leaving were reported between 2020 and 2021.
“The number of emigrants has been increasing since the 1980s. There was a sharp increase in the number of emigrants between 1980 and 1990 that was followed by a sharp decline between 1990 and 2000.
“There was a steady increase in the number of emigrants between 2001 to 2015. There was a general rise in the number of emigrants both males and females, since 1980. The highest numbers of emigrants were reported between 2020 to 2021,” Mahode said.
Most of the countries mentioned in the Zimbabwe diaspora figures are yet to publish their 2020 and 2021 figures, which, according to ZimStat trends, are most likely higher now.
Tony Hawkins, an economist, says the number of diasporans may be “undercounted” and could be much bigger than the data released by ZimStat.
It is difficult to quantify the numbers of Zimbabweans in the diaspora, as some take the citizenship of the country of immigration, and a number are undocumented.
According to the Scientific and Industrial Research and Development Center, diaspora figures tend to underestimate the number of Zimbabweans in the region as the number of undocumented migrants who either enter neighbouring countries, usually South Africa and Botswana, through official ports and then over-stay, and those who travel without valid travel documents, has increased.
The International Organisation for Migration concurs with ZimStat that over the past decades, the size of the Zimbabwean diaspora has steadily grown.
In one of its publications, it reports that, “It is estimated that close to 3 million Zimbabweans live abroad in countries such as South Africa, Botswana, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, among other destinations. Due to its proximity to Zimbabwe, Botswana hosts the second largest Zimbabwean migrant population in the region. An estimated 40 000 Zimbabweans are among foreign workers in Botswana with most of them employed in agriculture, construction, education, health and manufacturing, financial services among other sectors”.
Zimbabwe Information ministry permanent secretary, Nick Mangwana said ‘during the 2022 census people were being asked about their relatives in the Diaspora and where they are’.
Academic Moses Mhukahuru says this is not a reliable way of gathering information.
“How many people were asked this question and on what basis? Population census should never be based on self reporting. And when it’s done, it should come with as many caveats so the audience can understand the pitfalls.
“ZimStat diaspora population is not fact. The methodology that it’s based on is extremely flawed especially for population study,” he said.
Conclusion
The verdict is: Inconclusive. The available data gives varying figures from each country’s data sets and can not be substantiated. Only the figures reported for South Africa and Botswana are almost similar to those provided by ZimStat. There are wide margins between figures provided by countries from outside Africa such as the UK, Australia and Canada, with those of ZimStat. While the ZimStat figures can neither be confirmed as true or dismissed as false, the evidence from other countries do suggest that there has been undercounting or underreporting and the number of Zimbabweans in the diaspora is higher than reported by ZimStat.
