CLAIM: Matabeleland has been having the lowest fertility levels, even before the fertility decline in the country – Professor Marvellous Mhloyi, founder of the Demography Teaching and Department of Population Studies at the University of Zimbabwe.
SOURCE: The Sunday News
VERDICT: False
In an article published in the Sunday News of 31 July, 2022, an academic, Prof Marvellous Mhloyi is quoted making a claim on the fertility rate in Matabeleland.
The article sought to look into the factors that may be contributing to the Matabeleland region’s low population increase as seen in the recently released census preliminary report.
The Matabeleland regions, including Bulawayo (Source: Online)
In her analysis, Prof Mhloyi gives the lower fertility rate in the region as one of the causes of the low population increase and says ‘Matabeleland has been having the lowest fertility levels, even before the fertility decline in the country. The low fertility levels are partly explained by maternal cultural practices of child spacing and breastfeeding. In addition, Matabeleland has been having a history of male emigration to Botswana and South Africa. The out-migration of males left women without their husbands; this made it possible to space children for longer durations, with consequently lower fertility. As a result of lower fertility, the province has not had as young an age distribution as other provinces’.
What is the fertility rate?
The total fertility rate is defined as the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates.
It is a basic indicator of the level of fertility, calculated by summing age-specific birth rates over all reproductive ages.
It may be interpreted as the expected number of children a woman who survives to the end of the reproductive age span will have during her lifetime if she experiences the given age-specific rates.
It is calculated by totalling the age-specific fertility rates as defined over five-year intervals. Assuming no net migration and unchanged mortality, a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman ensures a broadly stable population.
This indicator is measured in children per woman.
Where does the Matabeleland region stand?
According to 2019 statistics, Matabeleland South had a fertility rate of 3.6 and it’s Northern counterpart, 4.3. This was a decrease from 3.7 and 4.2, in 2015, respectively.
How does the Matabeleland region fare in comparison to the rest of the country?
Together with mortality and migration, fertility is an element of population growth, reflecting both the causes and effects of economic and social developments.
The reasons for the dramatic decline in birth rates during the past few decades in the country include postponed family formation and child-bearing and a decrease in desired family sizes.
Though Matabeleland North and South total fertility rate fluctuated substantially in recent years, it tended to decrease overall, in line with national trends.
Source: Census Preliminary Report
However, it is not true that Matabeleland has always had the lowest fertility rates in the country. Actually, at one point, it had the highest.
Between 1988 and 1994, the region, including the Midlands, had the highest rates.
The report on trends and differentials, groups the country into 4 regions: Northern (Mashonaland East, West and Central), Eastern (Manicaland and Masvingo), South Western (Matabeleland North and South and Midlands), and Metropolitan (Harare and Bulawayo).
The South Western Region had the highest fertility rate at 5.47, followed by the Eastern region with 5.13, Northern with 5.10 and, lastly, the Metropolitan with 3.22.
In 1994, Matabeleland North and South had the highest fertility rate in the country with 6.2 and 5, respectively, with Matabeleland South tied at 5 with Mashonaland East. Harare had the lowest rate at 3.
Again in 1999, the Matabeleland provinces were in the top 3 with 4.9 for Matabeleland South (same for Manicaland) and 4.3 for Matabeleland North. Harare still had the lowest at 3.
In 2009, the two Matabeleland regions were again in the top 2 with 4.9 for North and 4.5 for South and Harare, again, with the lowest at 2.6.
It was only in 2010, that Harare first had a higher fertility rate compared to Bulawayo and the Matabeleland regions fell out of the top 3.
Conclusion
The claim that the Matabeleland region has always had the lowest fertility rate in the country, even before the decline started in the rest of the country is false.
The fertility rates in the Matabeleland regions were among the highest in the country, and Bulawayo higher than Harare, until 2010.
